Adam Benenson

Quantitative portfolio manager and AI-systems builder. Founder of Forethink Labs. Current work: portfolio intelligence (Prism), ambient AI for the browser (Forethink), a production digital twin, and machine-checked AI governance (legitimacy).

Writing

Alignment Is Downstream of Legitimacy
April 2026 · Medium
Not whether the system produced a good outcome, but whether it was entitled to decide. Why agentic AI alignment is downstream of legitimacy — and why the Constitution needs a compiler.
When the Forecast Becomes the Cause
March 2026 · Medium
Prediction markets work best when the future doesn't care what the market thinks. An incompleteness result: the more powerful they become, the larger the class of events they cannot price.
The Proof Is the Program
January 2026 · Medium
What changes when AI works inside a formal type system and hallucination is structurally rejected on contact.
The Compiler Is the Harness
January 2026 · Medium
Agentic coding is optimization, not authorship — and language choice determines the quality of the feedback signal. Why Rust's type system makes the compiler an unambiguous oracle.
The Cost of Cognitive Fragmentation
2024 · Medium
Every context switch leaves behind a shard of attention. Tabs multiply, threads blur. We spend more time reconstructing state than building. The founding argument for anticipatory AI.

All writing →

Quantitative Systems

Engines for systematic investing — understanding what a portfolio is really exposed to, constructing better hedges, and testing whether a claimed edge survives honest scrutiny before trusting it.

Prism
Python · Svelte · CPCV/DSR-gated
A general-purpose portfolio-intelligence engine. Bayesian view translation (entropy pooling over Black-Litterman), instrumented-PCA factor decomposition, RMT-cleaned covariance (Bouchaud RIE, Ledoit-Wolf NLS), sparse-cardinality mean-CVaR optimization, graphical-matching pair selection, and an immutable decision ledger. Every result must survive a deflation-aware validation battery — combinatorially-purged cross-validation, deflated Sharpe, probability of backtest overfitting — before it is allowed to claim anything. In production in a live long/short equity consulting engagement, driving book analytics, hedge construction, and optimization counterfactuals.
Snowball
Rust
A recursively self-learning alpha compounding engine for prediction markets. Hypotheses enter as replay-scored candidates, survive shadow and paper validation, earn size through bounded live review, and get clawed back when evidence degrades. Every fill updates a market factor graph; the graph reshapes candidate selection; better candidates generate more evidence.

Forethink Labs

An applied AI research laboratory building production AI with verified governance properties — a public consumer surface for knowledge workers, an enterprise platform for professional services firms, and the lab's internal AI orchestration substrate.

Rust · WASM · TypeScript · Svelte
Ambient AI layer for the browser that resurfaces relevant information before you search. The problem is structural: knowledge workers lose hours daily not to hard problems but to context reconstruction — finding the thing you already found, rebuilding the thread you already held. Most AI tools respond to prompts; Forethink anticipates context, proactively surfacing connections across your entire digital history. All processing happens on-device, with no data extraction or centralized indexing. Privacy isn't a policy — it's the substrate.
Workgraph
Rust · Python · TypeScript
A permissioned research-intelligence platform for professional services firms — domain ontologies spanning legal matters and investment research (firms, strategies, factors, themes). Captures and reasons over a firm's research, matter, and client history through Email/Drive change-data-capture into a temporal-hypergraph knowledge graph with tri-temporal indexing (event, effective, ingest time). Specialized agentic workflows for retrieval, drafting, compliance, and escalation sit on top. Every retrieval and agent action passes through scoped ACLs with information-barrier enforcement and a full audit plane.
Digital Twin
Python · Rust · JavaScript
A personal digital twin — built to reconstruct and extend my own causal reasoning (synthesizing Pearl's causal hierarchy with Rubin's potential outcomes), belief structure, and intellectual trajectory. Ingests arbitrary data: conversations, documents, reading history, behavioral traces, structured profiles. Extracts and consolidates claims across ten psychological dimensions; maintains a 24,000-episode store, a 50-node calibrated belief graph, and a queryable knowledge graph. Context engineering is formalized as a Markov Decision Process (DT-MDP) with a contrastive IRL retrieval policy. The system runs continuously, improving its own models between sessions. It also orchestrates structured agentic execution across the lab's other systems — augmenting my day-to-day work and accelerating Forethink's development end-to-end.

All Forethink Labs projects →

Formal Methods

Rust · Lean 4 · sorry-free
Compile governance, don't narrate it. Agentic AI rules should produce typed semantic kernels whose obligations are checked, not evaluated like behavior. The forcing move: reached scarce peer-relative decisive stages cannot jointly satisfy consistency, solidarity, and cross-claimant monotonicity (Arrow-Young-Thomson tradition). The kernel target is a product object — five runtime obligations (certifiable, governance-observable, corrigible, compositionally safe, non-vacuous), social-choice graph diagnostics, a spectral scaling witness, an explicit bridge. A machine-checked Lean 4 development paired with a Rust audit pipeline; end-to-end source walks of five deployed agent harnesses (incl. Codex, Claude Agent SDK, OpenClaw) produce machine-checked rejection certificates that surface real classifier failures rather than theoretical possibilities. Zero sorry, admit, or first-party axiom under the verification gate. A chatbot can be behaviorally aligned. An institution has to be legitimate.

More formal methods — four sorry-free Lean 4 / Mathlib-candidate libraries →

Background

Novus Partners
Managing Director, Head of Product · 2013–2020
Led the product, engineering, data, and design departments at an enterprise analytics company serving hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, pensions, and family offices — 140+ institutional investors managing $3T+ in assets. Full org ownership from strategy through execution; member of the executive team.
Diamondback Capital
Quantitative Analyst → Portfolio Manager · 2008–2012
Analyst on a $2B+ systematic equity book — Sharpe above 2 sustained through the 2008–2009 regime shift. Promoted to PM and managed own $200M+ portfolio in parallel.
Board Governor · 2022–present
RustNYC
Speaker